Watch Out Below!
USD/YEN, US equities, USTs & Silver on the move
London | Brisbane. 11 May 2026.
Thus far the continual geopolitical uncertainty has kept markets contained, apart from oil of course, but as we now go into another endless war, things are starting to break.
First to blow up is USD/YEN. The Bank of Japan has been intervening over the past 2 weeks above USD/YEN 160, selling USD70 billion and pushing YEN up (only) 2.5%. When they last intervened 2 years ago at the same level, YEN went up 12.5% over 2 months. Above USD/YEN 160 the YEN strength over the last 40 years is reversed. In 1985 central banks agreed at the Plaza Accord to sell USD/YEN in an effort to force the YEN higher to combat cheap and superior Japanese products. The Plaza accord broke Japan and its insane property bubble. 40 Years of recession/depression followed with massive social consequences.
And US stock markets blasted higher this week in what could be a final blow off top. Market breadth is as narrow as can be as chip stocks and AI capex hold the entire global stock market up. It can’t go on forever and when that spending is over, watch out below.
Markets completely ignored a stronger than expected Nonfarm Payroll report and continue to ignore more private credit/equity woes and a worsening commercial real estate market.
Don’t ignore YEN. It’s the most important red flag in capital markets currently and luckily most investors don’t understand the consequences. For more aware investors, this is an opportunity to position themselves for what’s about to occur. When US equities crater it will be too late.
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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.
Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.
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