The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its preliminary annual benchmark revision on September 9, 2025, revealing a significant downward adjustment to US nonfarm payroll employment for the 12 months ending March 2025. This revision, part of the standard process using more comprehensive data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), indicates the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than initially reported—reducing the estimated total from approximately 1.76 million to about 850,000 jobs. This equates to an average monthly job growth of roughly 71,000, down from the previously reported 147,000, representing a 0.6% decline in total employment levels.
Key Details:
Scope and Magnitude: The adjustment covers April 2024 to March 2025 and is the largest preliminary downward revision on record since 2000, surpassing the prior year's 598,000 reduction (finalized from an initial 818,000 estimate). It exceeds Wall Street forecasts, which ranged from 600,000 to 1 million jobs lower.
Methodology: Derived from unemployment insurance tax records and business data, this benchmark contrasts with monthly surveys (which had a 43% response rate, lower than historical averages). Non-responding businesses reported lower employment, contributing to the gap. The final revision will be published in February 2026 alongside January's jobs data.
Broader Labour Market Context: This follows recent weak monthly reports, including August's 22,000 job gains (far below the 75,000 expected) and a revised June net loss of 13,000 jobs—the first decline since December 2020. Unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, with continued claims elevated since April, signaling a cooling market amid reduced hiring and higher job search durations.
Economic Implications: The data underscores a weakening labour market, potentially accelerating Federal Reserve rate cuts (a 25-basis-point reduction is now priced at 92% probability for the September 16-17 meeting). It also highlights challenges in data accuracy, including low survey responses and birth-death model overestimations of new business job creation. Politically, the revision has drawn scrutiny, following President Trump's August firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer over prior weak data, though experts affirm the process is routine and non-partisan.
This revision paints a more subdued picture of 2024-2025 job growth, raising concerns about economic momentum but aligning with signs of stabilisation rather than contraction.
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