Market has been digesting the first FED cut for 4 days now and we have 4 up days in yield.
4.20% looks like an easy upside prediction, with a close below 4.03% negating.
(Dare I say) fundamentally it looks like we may have a low in long term rates, assuming no yield curve control or similar. Central banks can keep cutting short rates but, for heavily indebted nations like US, UK, Japan, France, Germany etc, maybe long rates can’t get much lower.
This would be favourable for floating-rate mortgages, banks as they can lend long and borrow short and governments as they can roll-over short-term debt cheaply.
And it should be a stable outcome.