US 10 Year Yield Update 2 December 2025

Back to the scene of the crime

UST10 tagged the trend support at 3.97% as we suggested it would, and then spiked higher. Clear targets above at 4.18% and 4.20% before a big sell-off in price to yield 4.30%.

A rate cut next week by the FED is already priced in. A bigger cut would scream emergency pushing yields higher. No cut would seriously disappoint the market.

Price and yield aside, it’s difficult for investors to believe in a central bank flying blind, one by their own admission focusing on jobs, with Nonfarm Payroll cancelled for October.

It’s all political.