US 10 Year Yield Update 12 December 2025

Yield dropped initially then rose

The initial drop in yield down to 4.10% didn’t last long and yield closed at 4.15%, pretty much unchanged on the day. We still think rates are going higher and we’ll test the 4.18% to 4.20% resistance again.

With the talk of Japan, China, EU etc dumping US bonds, whether it’s true or not, you wouldn’t want to hold 10 Years at 4.15% with CPI at 2.8% and the FED printing money like the Weimar Republic.

Yield is being manipulated by the Treasury’s buy back program which has prevented yield breaking above 4.20% so far. We think there is a big opportunity in the next few months, as the 5 year support kicks in at 3.80 today, and rising, to see yield back up to 6.75% in the next year.