US 10 Year Yield Update 25 November 2025

Bonds rally into FOMC

10 year yield could drop back to the scene of the crime at 3.98% before the FOMC puts a floor on yields by cutting rates. The structural floor is at 3.77% where the 15 year uptrend kicks in.

Difficult to imagine that Powell will not succumb to the rest (almost) of the committee wanting to cut rates. Powell must dream it’s May 2026 overnight and then wake up to the nightmare that it isn’t yet.

So many problems for the FED, almost all of which are of their own making. Time to pay the piper.