The Great Distraction
Don’t read what they say, watch what they do
London | Brisbane. 13 April 2026.
2 weeks of peace talks sets the scene for markets to rally and good will to pervade to all mankind. But behind the scenes the US is in its usual state of panic. Melania publicly denying what everybody knows to be true, her relationship with Epstein portends a major revelation.
Economically inflation is picking up globally, even in China, and employment is teetering on the abyss. AI isn’t just taking our job in the future, it’s taking jobs in AI companies now.
Trump’s inescapable issue is not Iran, China, Russia, Oil. It’s the Federal Reserve. Minutes from 8 April before Thursday and Friday’s elevated PCE and CPI numbers reveal that many participants still expect rate cuts eventually if inflation moves down as projected. However, some officials supported language that would keep the door open to rate hikes if inflation stays stubbornly high (“two-sided” risk description) and the balance of risks are upside for inflation and downside for employment. Both are elevated, largely due to Middle East developments.
With US GDP for Q4 coming in at a mere 0.5% QoQ for the 4th quarter 2026, the risk of stagflation is glaringly obvious. And rates won’t be coming down anytime soon.
A defeat for Orban in Hungary’s election this weekend would bring about a better coherence in the EU and could well be the start of the bloc becoming a state. Trump would be horrified.
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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.
Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.
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