Japan Update 1 December 2025

All eyes on the BoJ on 19 December

Plenty of speculation on interest rate/currency. Who’s pulling the strings and is economic stimulus counterproductive?

All the “experts” on X are expecting a huge crash, unwind of the carry trade but all that is old news.

BoJ/MoF are trying to normalise rates and with CPI at 2.5 % or so, clearly 10 years rates are wrong at 1.80%. We think the currency will keep weakening and rates will keep rising until foreign investors want to buy JGBs. That might be a long time.

Changes to ownership entities are coming but, man, does it take a long time.