Japan 10 Year Yield Update 21 November 2025

Yield trying to break out

In 2 years 10 year Japanese yields have risen from 0.165% to 1.8%. Big move but rate structure is so broken by fiscal policy errors (40 years). Anyway it’s our opportunity. Yields still moving higher along with weakness of the currency.

The Bank of Japan owns more than 50% of the JGB market and 70 of EFTs along with many other domestic assets. In reality yields still need to double to be consistent with 2.5% CPI, as it is currently.

The China/Japan punch up has deflected from the core problem of normalisation of rates, not to mention pricing in risk.