Financial Markets Update 31 October 2025
Powell's presser comes home to roost
News Overnight
A busy day in markets as the Bank of Japan surprised no-one by keeping rates unchanged, as did the European Central Bank.
Madame Lagarde emphasised that the ECB Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, with no reinvestment of principal payments from maturing securities, in stark contrast to the FED pivoting to QE. View ECB Statement
Otherwise the tone was negative as Powell’s hawkish presser, and earnings misses by tech stocks, turned sentiment sour. Meta, in particular, got smashed, dropping 10%. Bitcoin followed.
The USD was stronger, particularly again the YEN and rates ticked higher.
Bank of Japan: Statement on Monetary Policy [BoJ]
Bank of Japan: Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2025) [BoJ]
S&P 500 falls as big tech sags amid mixed earnings [investing.com]
Breaking
US and China agree one-year trade truce after Trump-Xi talks [FT]
Trump administration quietly pays overdue WTO fees [FT]
Pentagon Orders National Guard to Establish Quick-Reaction Forces for Civil Unrest, Riots [Wall St Journal]
Toyota says it did not explicitly promise Trump new $10 billion investment in US [Reuters]
Four Senate Republicans vote with Democrats in effort to end Trump tariffs on Canada [CNN]
Big Banks Are Fighting a New $10 Million FDIC Cap [Wall St Journal]
For Free Subscribers
S&P 500 Update 31 October 2025
Microsoft and Meta drag markets down, and Powell’s hawkish tone turned market sentiment bearish. We didn’t fill the gap down to 6,808. 6,775 is the pivot point below which a quick drop to 6,550 could happen.
Silver Update 31 October 2025
It took the tone of Powell’s address to sink in, to turn Gold and Silver bullish again. The pivot line from 6 months ago was tagged in the last few days, and the orange uptrend channel regained.
For Paid Subscribers
USD/YEN Update 31 October 2025
The break above 153.25 propelled price another big figure higher. DXY is higher too and nearly at a point of establishing a new higher trend for the USD. Not quite yet.
Bitcoin Update 31 October 2025
Weekly chart above is the least bearish short-term chart I can find. The community is deeply negative at the moment as any rally is faded almost immediately. The lack of liquidity is showing, after all the leverage traders got wiped out.
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