ECB Monetary Policy Executive Summary: September 11, 2025
The European Central Bank's Governing Council opted to hold its key interest rates steady, maintaining the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.40%.
This marks the second consecutive pause after a series of cuts earlier in the year, with inflation currently near the 2% medium-term target.
Updated ECB staff projections indicate:
Headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 (slightly revised from June).
Core inflation (excluding energy and food) at 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027.
GDP growth at 1.2% in 2025 (upgraded from 0.9%), 1.0% in 2026 (minor downgrade), and 1.3% in 2027 (unchanged).
The Council reiterated a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting strategy for future decisions, avoiding pre-commitments and focusing on inflation outlook, underlying dynamics, and policy transmission.
Asset purchase programs (APP and PEPP) continue to wind down without reinvestments.
Markets reacted calmly to the widely anticipated hold, with money market pricing for further rate cuts dropping to around a 40% chance of one additional reduction by spring 2026.