Could Powell Leave Early?
The USD is waiting for it to happen.
London | Brisbane. 16th Feb 2025.
Chair Powell just can’t get a break. But it’s all of his own doing. Friday’s lower than expected US CPI is following the Truflation course and heading to zero. Fast. Wednesday’s Nonfarm Payroll was up 130,000 but markets thought it spurious. Subsequently an annual benchmark revision, which squares the survey-drawn monthly payroll estimates with comprehensive but lagged data from employers’ quarterly tax filings, showed there were 898,000 fewer jobs added between April 2024 and March 2025. So it’s complete nonsense.
Back to Powell. His dream of emulating Paul Volcker is over. The President has the new team on the touchline. Why not retire gracefully and let them clear up the mess?
For markets now that Bitcoin, Gold and Silver have settled down for now at least, the big, big, big question is which way for the USD? Yields have dropped significantly on the CPI numbers and we’re just about to go into rate cut fever syndrome. We’re at the inflection point, which will drive all markets for the rest of the year.
It’s Chinese New Year for the next 2 weeks and George Washington’s Birthday holiday is today in the US.
Wednesday sees the FOMC minutes which could be an eye opener after CPI. Otherwise it’s a data light week. But that doesn’t mean the volatility will drop.
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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.
Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.
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