The new FED leader sent markets tumbling by promising to be accountable and transparent while doing a good job! Holy smokes. Markets have accepted no rate cuts and even are pricing in rate hikes.

Reality is that rates have to go a lot lower by fair means or foul.

Along with Trump declaring seized Iranian money not his, this is a clear sign that a financial reset is coming. Maybe to gold too.

London | Brisbane. 15 June 2026.

Seems like markets don’t want the US central bank to do their job properly, find a better measure of inflation than the hugely outdated current models, and be open about everything. Metals, Bitcoin, stocks and bonds all fell sharply.

Luckily Uncle Don was there to fast forward the good news about the Iran agreement, which helped save equity markets ahead of the holiday on Friday.

The bit that really spooked markets was the removal of the possible (in the future) rate cut vibe. Without that glimmer of hope the 2 year yield backed up 20bps but the 10 & 30 years less.

It’s our view that Warsh is doing exactly the right thing, Something that the FED has not been doing for a long time. To get rates down, especially long-term rates then the FED needs to be a lot more credible and courageous. And watching how markets price risk is a really good starting point.

Rates have to go lower despite any amount of inflation and if it takes yield curve control to achieve it then that is what is going to happen. For any chance of escaping from US$40T in debt, those rates have to go down a lot and starting right now.

Surely if you liked Gold at US$5,600 you must love it at US$4,100.

###

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

London | Brisbane. 15 June 2026. For immediate release.

SpaceX shares opened at $150 (a 11% pop), climbed as high as $176 intraday (nearly +31%), and closed up 19% at $160.95, instantly valuing the company above $2 trillion and making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. But markets have moved on and the next few weeks will be challenging.

The ECB hiked rates 25bps and the Bank of Japan’s Ueda pretty much told markets a 25bps hike was going to happen on Tuesday, the same day that Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting.

Last week’s US CPI and PPI will be hard to overlook with the YoY headline numbers coming in at 4.2% and 6.5% but central bankers always have their standard esoteric playbook which is finding an unknown metric to suddenly follow. One which shows inflation is conveniently subdued. It’s the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE whose latest reading was 2.3% YoY, and Warsh has already publicly stated that it is his preference.

With the US Treasury adopting a growth-at-all-costs strategy to inflate away the debt, Warsh may well be tempted to join them on the biggest financial gamble in history. For markets this could be the greatest one way bet of all time. Short rates to zero but bond investors beware.

Here’s the podcast

###

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

Subscribe now

London | Brisbane. 8 June 2026.

US equity indexes fell hard on Friday as the Iran situation re-ignited and Nonfarm Payroll showed the US economy isn’t slowing as much as some commentators expect.

But that’s just trying to fit a narrative to events. In reality, markets are going to have to find at least US$ 1Trillion to get the upcoming IPOs away successfully as well as at least US$5 Trillion to roll over maturing US Government debt.

But it was Google who spoiled the party by suddenly announcing the offer of US$80 Billion of dilutive equity. This announcement on 1 June started the selloff with crypto going first, and ended the week with the NASDAQ crashing 4% and closing at the lows on Friday afternoon.

Gold and Silver followed suit as the USD strengthened after the US / Iran ceasefire became strained.

Iran launched missiles and drones targeting US-linked sites and maritime traffic. This included attempts toward Kuwait and Bahrain and drones threatening operations in the Strait of Hormuz.

US Central Command reported intercepting Iranian missiles/drones and conducting retaliatory/self-defense strikes on Iranian military targets.

###

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

Subscribe now

London | Brisbane. 1 June 2026.

With oil back in the $80/90s depending on which flavour you prefer, markets have started to look at what happens next. Cuba? Interest rate hikes? Interest rate cuts? Gold revaluation? And the next FED meeting on June 1, with Kevin Warsh chairing the FOMC for the first time, will be the first glimpse into the future.

On Friday stock markets hit all time highs yet again, and with a whole host of IPOs lining up in the next month or two, especially SpaceX due June 12, Wall St has a good reason to keep the market running hot. OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Lime, Strava, Canva and maybe Kraken are also in the pipeline. Wall St will have a lot of shares to push out to the market.

The magnificent 7 have driven markets higher by a continuous buy-back policy for the last 5 years. That playbook has been extended by the hyperscalers and the circular AI funding routine. But now it’s time for a flood of share offerings to hit the market. Iran is in the rear view mirror, the price of oil is falling, and along with it inflation will subside. A new FED chair is poised to cut rates as instructed by the President.

One thing is for sure, when all those shares hit the markets Wall St won’t be left holding the bag. All the stops will be pulled out to ensure that those shares have been sold before insiders get to start selling after the lockup period has ended. What could go wrong?

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

Subscribe now

London | Brisbane 25 May 2026.

A new FED Chair creates a new era in markets as optimism becomes the norm, even if it’s short-lived. The old guard are vilified as a new broom sweeps away perceptions. It’s different this time.

Enter Kevin Warsh into a really tricky situation. Inflation surging, rates backing up, $39T national debt, credit crisis, CRE crisis. But the stock markets are running hard. New wealth is seemingly being created every day for those lucky shareholders. His immediate job is to not let those stock markets fall.

But, as Mr Warsh chairs the FOMC for the first time on 17 June, he’ll be looking at his predecessor, Comrade Powell, who has stayed on as Board Governor and can remain so until January 2028. This is quite unprecedented and will inevitably form a fracturing in a normally coherent committee.

President Trump will be seeking to deflect some of the responsibility for the financial mess of the USA, and he’ll be imbuing Mr Warsh with superhuman powers. He may have superhuman powers but he’ll need superhuman cooperation with Trump and Bessent to even stabilise the fiscal and monetary issues that have pushed the USA to the abyss. And if he fails, history will decide his legacy.

###

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

London | Brisbane. 11 May 2026.

Thus far the continual geopolitical uncertainty has kept markets contained, apart from oil of course, but as we now go into another endless war, things are starting to break.

First to blow up is USD/YEN. The Bank of Japan has been intervening over the past 2 weeks above USD/YEN 160, selling USD70 billion and pushing YEN up (only) 2.5%. When they last intervened 2 years ago at the same level, YEN went up 12.5% over 2 months. Above USD/YEN 160 the YEN strength over the last 40 years is reversed. In 1985 central banks agreed at the Plaza Accord to sell USD/YEN in an effort to force the YEN higher to combat cheap and superior Japanese products. The Plaza accord broke Japan and its insane property bubble. 40 Years of recession/depression followed with massive social consequences.

And US stock markets blasted higher this week in what could be a final blow off top. Market breadth is as narrow as can be as chip stocks and AI capex hold the entire global stock market up. It can’t go on forever and when that spending is over, watch out below.

Markets completely ignored a stronger than expected Nonfarm Payroll report and continue to ignore more private credit/equity woes and a worsening commercial real estate market.

Don’t ignore YEN. It’s the most important red flag in capital markets currently and luckily most investors don’t understand the consequences. For more aware investors, this is an opportunity to position themselves for what’s about to occur. When US equities crater it will be too late.

###

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

In this episode, Don Collins and Ian Reynolds analyse the current geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape, discussing ongoing wars, market reactions, and central bank policies. They explore how these factors influence global markets, oil prices, and currency liquidity, providing insights for investors navigating uncertain times.

Key Topics

Geopolitical conflicts and their economic impact
Market reactions to geopolitical tensions
Central bank policies and interest rate expectations

Chapters

00:00 Introduction
00:28 Navigating Stress in Capital Markets
06:03 Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Implications
10:42 Market Trends and Economic Indicators

In this episode, Don Collins and Ian Reynolds analyse the current state of global geopolitics and macroeconomics, discussing US debt, potential financial resets, and market implications. They explore the significance of Hank Paulson’s recent warnings, the US debt situation, and the impact on markets and currencies.

Key Topics

US debt and fiscal policy
Global financial reset and debt growth
Market reactions to geopolitical tensions

Action Items

Monitor US debt levels and policy announcements
Follow upcoming US political nominations
Watch for market signals indicating a reset

Sound bites

“They need a plan ready to go.”
“He’s the guy that negotiated the 2009 deal.”
“Markets are waiting for something to happen.”

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Market Challenges
01:24 Geopolitical and Economic Insights
04:19 The Role of Hank Paulson
06:12 Debt Management and Financial Strategies
10:45 Political Changes in Europe
12:06 Market Analysis and Trends
17:58 Looking Ahead: Market Predictions

London | Brisbane. 20 April 2026.

“Former Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, called on US authorities to prepare a back-up plan to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries.“ Bloomberg’s words.

Hank Paulson was Treasury Secretary during the GFC. He knows a few war stories. After a decade of flying under the radar he suddenly pops up on the world’s most trusted reporting platform to prepare the way for extreme measures to try to save the US.

Specifically the insane levels of debt must somehow be allowed to grow by issuing more, whilst a bigger plan is formulated for a global financial reset. And the plan must be ready to go now.

And here comes Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nomination for FOMC Governor and Chair, his Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing is scheduled for Tuesday. Jerome Powell’s term as Chair ends on May 15, 2026. In an emergency, which they clearly think is right around the corner, the buyer of last resort is the FED. They’d better have the right FED in place when it happens.

In Europe, the EU has finally got rid of Orban and can move forward with defending Ukraine against Russia, and getting Sweden and Finland into NATO. It’s a big step forward but there still doesn’t seem to be anyone to lead the EU into becoming a European state, the biggest economy in the world.

###

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

London | Brisbane. 13 April 2026.

2 weeks of peace talks sets the scene for markets to rally and good will to pervade to all mankind. But behind the scenes the US is in its usual state of panic. Melania publicly denying what everybody knows to be true, her relationship with Epstein portends a major revelation.

Economically inflation is picking up globally, even in China, and employment is teetering on the abyss. AI isn’t just taking our job in the future, it’s taking jobs in AI companies now.

Trump’s inescapable issue is not Iran, China, Russia, Oil. It’s the Federal Reserve. Minutes from 8 April before Thursday and Friday’s elevated PCE and CPI numbers reveal that many participants still expect rate cuts eventually if inflation moves down as projected. However, some officials supported language that would keep the door open to rate hikes if inflation stays stubbornly high (“two-sided” risk description) and the balance of risks are upside for inflation and downside for employment. Both are elevated, largely due to Middle East developments.

With US GDP for Q4 coming in at a mere 0.5% QoQ for the 4th quarter 2026, the risk of stagflation is glaringly obvious. And rates won’t be coming down anytime soon.

A defeat for Orban in Hungary’s election this weekend would bring about a better coherence in the EU and could well be the start of the bloc becoming a state. Trump would be horrified.

###

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

London | Brisbane. 7 April 2026.

Despite the continual headlines and deadlines, there is no momentum towards de-escalation and Trump has dragged the world into a conflict involving nuclear accidents and possibly kinetic nuclear actions.

Trump’s derangement truly knows no bounds. His social media posts reflect the true man and that’s of concern to every world citizen. He will soon find out why Hitler couldn’t win WW2 by fighting on more than one front. Trump will soon be fighting on many physical and financial fronts and being confronted by a possible civil war.

Europe has already started to prepare. The media reports that France has repatriated the remainder of its gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This is not strictly true, France has sold their gold held in NY and bought a similar amount in a more fungible form to store locally. Nevertheless, this is a crucial decision and shows that Europe is, at least, preparing to de-risk Trump. Rhymes with 1971’s similar action.

Debt and currency debasement have sunk all human empires. We’re at that point now. Investors should take cover, but holding cash as all fiat currencies collapse is not the way to do it. Having no debt is key. Owning your own house, without mortgage, is good but values will be volatile and governments will tax it unrelentingly. Owning non-sovereign assets is critical.

###

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

In this episode, Don and Ian analyse the current geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape, focusing on the impact of ongoing conflicts, energy prices, and market uncertainty. They discuss investment strategies amid volatility, the role of gold and Bitcoin, and the potential for recession.

Key topics

Geopolitical conflicts and market uncertainty

Energy prices and their impact on economies

Investment strategies during volatile times

Chapters

00:00 Navigating Uncertainty in Capital Markets

08:38 The Impact of Geopolitical Events on Investments

12:12 Market Reactions and Economic Indicators

16:09 Looking Ahead: Employment and Economic Outlook

Key topics

Geopolitical conflicts and market uncertainty

Energy prices and their impact on economies

Investment strategies during volatile times

Chapters

00:00 Navigating Uncertainty in Capital Markets

08:38 The Impact of Geopolitical Events on Investments

12:12 Market Reactions and Economic Indicators

16:09 Looking Ahead: Employment and Economic Outlook

The only certainties in life are death and taxes: add capital markets hating uncertainty.

With Brent Crude now trading at $110, US$10 below its high and 60% above where it was a month ago, all eyes are on inflation and supply disruptions

Markets continue to fall. US equities are now off 10% from the highs, US 10 year bond yields have risen 50bps, private credit gatings abound and now Bitcoin has started to fall.

As Gold has seen a lot of selling after a parabolic move earlier in the year, so did Bitcoin become the (temporary) safe haven but now flows are coming back into Gold and Bitcoin is moving back down again.

The USD rose as Gold sold off with some regarding it as a safe move. US treasuries selling off would seem to negate that theory.

Trump has managed to drag the UAE into the Iran conflict and now Iraq and Kuwait are getting involved. The UK and France are aiding the US with access to landing and refuelling points.

Risk-off is the current framework. Eventually it will all come down in a crash.

###

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

Subscribe now

Ian Reynolds, a trader and investor with a background in foreign exchange and early Bitcoin investment, discusses the current macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Topics include the US debt crisis, oil prices, currency fluctuations, gold and crypto markets, and upcoming economic indicators.

Key points
US $39 trillion debt and its implications
Impact of Iran conflict on oil and markets
Dollar fluctuations and their triggers
Gold and crypto market reactions
Upcoming economic indicators and their significance

Chapters
00:00 Introduction to Economic Challenges
01:30 Geopolitical Tensions and Market Volatility
05:00 The Dollar's Dilemma
07:20 Market Trends and Predictions
10:54 Central Banks and Economic Policy
16:02 Conclusion and Future Outlook

London | Brisbane. 23rd March 2026.

Trump’s ill thought-out Iran mission has hiked oil and, more importantly, gas prices globally resulting in a change of strategy for central banks. What was a cutting bias, is now a hiking bias. Exactly the last thing the US Administration wanted.

And amazingly, Powell is now firmly in charge of the US rates narrative as Trump’s bungling reveals the true competence deficiency behind all the bluster and bravado.

Bond yields have risen sharply as real and perceived inflation pressures are now firmly in policy mindset. Gold, Silver and equities have been hammered as investors seek liquidity.

The USD has appreciated as investors raise cash to cover potential margin calls, but not that much. The USD has risen 4% but Gold has lost 20% in the last few weeks.

What is a crisis for world peace now, could easily spill into a crisis for the USD. It’s at a pivotal point. If Trump and Bessent can’t get their act together, a really big change in global asset values is on its way.

And US Government debt just hit US$39,000,000,000,000.

###

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

Market reactions to geopolitical conflicts

Impact of oil prices on global markets

Role of gold and Bitcoin as safe havens

Chapters

00:00 Navigating Stressed Capital Markets

02:59 Geopolitical Impacts on Investment Strategies

05:54 Market Reactions to Oil Prices and Inflation

08:56 The Future of Gold and Economic Stability

12:09 Cryptocurrency Trends Amidst Market Volatility

14:52 Analysing Current Market Charts

17:57 Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Predictions

https://www.suberia.capital/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ian-reynolds-fx-cap-mkts-btc/

Market reactions to geopolitical conflicts

Impact of oil prices on global markets

Role of gold and Bitcoin as safe havens

Chapters

00:00 Navigating Stressed Capital Markets

02:59 Geopolitical Impacts on Investment Strategies

05:54 Market Reactions to Oil Prices and Inflation

08:56 The Future of Gold and Economic Stability

12:09 Cryptocurrency Trends Amidst Market Volatility

14:52 Analysing Current Market Charts

17:57 Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Predictions

https://www.suberia.capital/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ian-reynolds-fx-cap-mkts-btc/