Of course the FED hiked 25bps as the markets had told them to. But they did surprise by talking further increases with a fully aligned committee backing Mr Warsh. After a brief whipsaw price action, markets actually cheered this news. Even gold rallied despite the potential increase in real interest rates.

From the Japanese perspective, the news was good. USD/YEN remained below US$155.00 and JGB yields fell with US treasury yields. But on Friday along comes the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. We know that communication blackouts exist before monetary policy meetings but that’s meant to be no comms coming out, not no news coming in. Surely the BoJ knew the news from the FED, watched the presser and observed the markets’ reaction?

Apparently not. With their usual fearful thinking they blew their big opportunity to hike bigger, or talk further hikes a la Warsh and, with a split vote (7-2), the committee was too scared to act positively. Needless to say bond yields (Japanese and US) rose back up to where they were before the FED and USD/YEN hit 158.00.

Having helped them try (almost succeeding) in strengthening the YEN, Bessent must be spitting teeth. And given his apparent predilection for physical violence, Mr Ueda should start growing a beard or wearing platform shoes.

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London | Brisbane. 14 September 2026.

Last week was huge for markets with oil spiking as the Iran saga worsens, bond yields rising everywhere but in China, US CPI & PPI slightly hotter than expected, and US Treasury buy-backs exacerbating the deteriorating fiscal backdrop.

But we are now in the eye of the storm, as investors brace themselves for policy meetings this week of the FED, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

Mr Warsh’s FOMC meetings just keep getting harder and now his back is to the wall. Markets are telling him he has to hike and the FED always does what the markets tell it to do. And Mr Trump will be blowing a gasket when his boy disobeys him.

His very slim escape path could be that markets have tightened on his behalf already, so there is no need to hike short term rates. It’s true but this would be seen as yet more can kicking. What difference can 25bps make to anything? Nothing.

In his own words, the new transparent and credible FED would surely embark on a hiking cycle to drive inflation to the 2% goal that Mr Warsh talks about continuously. At least 4 hikes of 25 bps or, stop messing around, do it all now if it’s needed.

All kudos to Mr Warsh so far for managing to keep a low profile but that’s changed. He needs to back up the Treasury and move the US forward positively. If it’s even possible.

Another problem will be the Bank of Japan hiking on Friday.

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London | Brisbane. 7 September 2026.

This week saw more evidence that the rest of the world is preparing to dump the United States. With gold now the biggest holding of western central banks, watch where it’s moving to, not the price. The price will follow.

The DNB this week confirmed a 3 month long operation of selling its gold from the Reserve Bank of New York and buying the same amount in market ready bullion in London. Their press release mentioned “crisis” a dozen times whilst encouraging caution!

Gold has long been held in geographically optimised locations. London is protected by the Atlantic and the European continent whilst America has 2 huge oceans. Understand what they’re doing, not what they’re saying.

Gold is being accumulated at the expense of US Treasuries. The RBA has cut its USD holdings favouring Euros and sovereign funds have been slashing UST allocations. The EU has announced that the US$300b in EU savings will be redirected to internal investment in future. China has conversely been allowing its banks to buy more USTs but that is in the context of its currency getting too strong.

Back in the US, following a massive US$12b UST buyback last week, the Treasury is trying to sell US$61b 10 and 30 bonds at auction.

The Noose is tightening around the necks of Trump, Bessent and Warsh.

Podcast Notes

On September 9, the Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10-year notes. A day later, it will auction $22 billion of 30-year bonds. At virtually the same time, it will buy back $2–4 billion (or much more) of older, off-the-run bonds to “support liquidity.” Sell bonds with one hand. Buy bonds with the other.

RBA cuts US dollar reserves as central banks hedge against Trump
The Reserve Bank of Australia quietly reduced its target share of US dollar holdings in its foreign currency reserves from 55% to 45%, shifting the allocation primarily into euros. This adjustment reflects growing caution among global policymakers regarding US institutional stability, fiscal trajectory, and market volatility under the Trump administration.

Netherlands moves billions in gold to London in 'crisis preparedness' move

15 Sep 16 senate vote on clarity act

Gold and silver became legal tender in Texas yesterday under HB 1056.

New Zealand Dollar Drops After RBNZ Rate Hike

Possible FX intervention in USD/YEN by MoF Wed 2nd Sep

Treasury yields fall after top Fed official signals support for rate hold.
Christopher Waller stated he would support holding interest rates steady at the upcoming September 15–16 meeting, provided incoming inflation data confirms cooling price pressures.

Von der Leyen: €300 billion in European savings flown overseas every year, primarily to the US, will be invested in Europe from now on. All 27 EU states agreed to establish the S&I Union, a step toward the full Capital Market Union

Exclusive-Chinese banks purchasing Treasuries after wooing dollar deposits, sources say. It's so they can weaken the Yuan if necessary.

Manager of Norway’s $2tn oil fund proposes slashing US Treasury holdings

Trump says if the Fed doesn't cut rates, he'll stop trading with some nations

Study the movement of gold before Nixon took USD off gold standard

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Kevin Warsh’s much anticipated first Jackson Hole Symposium speech was along the lines of the previous 2 FED pressers. Inflation is way above target and the FED may well need to address that, if improvement does not arrive swiftly.

The result was USD higher along with rates. USD/YEN back to 1.600 and UST10 back at 4.73%, reversing Bessent’s YEN and longer bond interventions.

Is the US really in a financial civil war between the government and central bank? They may not be fighting each other exactly, as far as we can tell, but the outcomes they desire cannot coexist. Someone has to lose. Sadly it’s the country that will lose. Lose its empire.

Much was made by Warsh of the 2 mandates of full employment and stable prices but, as we talked about in the podcast last week, the third, much less well known mandate of “moderate long-term interest rates” has yet to be pulled out of the bag.

But it was there in the speech, if you looked closely, and linked to money supply:

“Fifth, short-term interest rates are the predominant tool to achieve the dual mandate. Unconventional policies to spur economic activity may suit genuine crises but should otherwise be used sparingly, if at all.

Sixth, money matters. It’s not fashionable these days, but my view is that money has something important to do with monetary policy. We should pay attention to money created by the central bank and money that comes from the banking and financial systems. It’s true that financial innovations and other factors alter the mechanics that link the monetary base, the velocity of money, and the broader economy. But that is scarcely a reason to ignore the ultimate effects of money on financial conditions and prices.”

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This week the US Treasury announced that it would be doubling its bond buyback amount to USD 4 Billion per operation and the US 10 year yield fell 10bps before reversing to end back up at 4.74%, its highest rate since a spike 3 years ago, caused by the FED’s Quantitative Tightening. Before that, it was last at the yield just before the GFC in 2007.

Treasury’s FX operations with Japan haven’t had too much success either. USD/YEN at 159.00, down from 164.00, a rate that hasn’t been seen since 1987.

These policy failures have fully focused investors on fiat currency debt spirals with non-sovereign assets jumping in the last three days. Gold up 12% and Bitcoin up 24%.

Andy Burnham, the UK’s unelected Prime Minister, must be pleased to be under the radar as UK debt-to-GDP hits 100% at 3 trillion pounds. With GDP growing at only 1.2% per annum, CPI at 2.6% annualised and a budget deficit at 4% of GDP, there would seem to be no way out of the balance of payments problems the country has been fighting for years.

Markets haven’t been looking at the UK since Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng blew up the gilts market (10 year yield up 125bps in a week and Sterling down 8% in a day) after introducing fiscally irresponsible legislation. They both exited parliament very shortly afterwards.

The crisis began immediately after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his mini-budget (the “Growth Plan”) on September 23, 2022. The resulting severe dysfunction forced emergency intervention by the Bank of England over the following days and weeks.

Who will last longer: Liz Truss or the lettuce? The lettuce lasted longer. Former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned after 45 days in office in October 2022, while an unrefrigerated iceberg lettuce livestreamed by the British tabloid [The Daily Star] remained fresh enough to win the contest.

A lettuce in the current heatwave won’t last long.

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London | Brisbane. 17 August 2026. For immediate release.

The intervention on behalf of Japan two weeks ago seems to have led investors to question the credibility of the US, and as the debt clock approaches USD 40,000,000,000,000, there is nowhere to hide.

The 4.7% yield on USD 10 year and the 5.25% yield on US 30 year have been acting like a magnet every time rates try to drop. And they are at these high levels right now. The 30 year yield hasn’t been this high since 2008.

Over the last two years, Treasury has been buying back an average of USD 17 billion per month and, although paused right now, the FED has been buying USD 10-30 billion per month for reserve management purposes.

Let’s get this right. Treasury buys its own bonds. It finances these purchases by issuing bills which the FED buys and leaves on the collateral account with banks, so the banks can lend against it.

The conclusion is an effort to stimulate the economy by giving banks more collateral to lend against. If they want to lend, of course. The other part of our conclusion is an effort to put a lid on all maturities of the treasury curve. Shadow yield curve control.

Mr Bessent knows markets. He’s the best man for this most difficult job, but as mid-terms in November come into view, and with Trump’s popularity at an all time low, he may well have to take one for the team. There may well be too many balls to juggle.

That would be catastrophic for financial markets.

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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

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London | Brisbane. 10 August 2026. For immediate release.

Following the US Treasury’s selling EUR for YEN to assist the Bank of Japan’s USD/YEN sales it seems that the other two economic giants had been preparing for this treachery.

On 24 July 2026 the ECB confirmed that the Eurosystem had started the onboarding process for EUREP, a standing liquidity backstop run by the ECB for non-euro area central banks and monetary authorities. Effective in Q4 2026, onboarding has already begun.

Eligible central banks borrow euros temporarily from five Eurosystem national central banks against high-quality euro-denominated collateral up to €50 billion per central bank with no restrictions on how the borrowed euros may be used.

This facility was created for EU central banks during COVID and its expansion is a clear sign that the EU views the USD’s role as global reserve is coming to an end.

China seems to have seen this coming too but has a different approach. The People’s Bank of China has been buying Gold continually but the announcement on 7 August 2026, blew everyone’s minds.

In July 2026 the PBoC bought: 640,000 fine troy ounces (nearly 20 metric tons). This was the largest monthly addition since October 2023 (when the PBOC added 740,000 ounces). It extended China’s consecutive monthly gold-buying streak to 21 months. The pace has accelerated steadily. The buying continued amid broader central-bank demand for gold as a strategic reserve asset.

Podcast:

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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

Markets are forcing a choice. Hike rates to combat inflation and be credible or cut rates to save US debt servicing costs and risk further inflation. No action could be disastrous and erode confidence.

And so we come to Mr Warsh’s second FOMC meeting and having given him the luxury of putting up with bluster on his first, markets will be watching very carefully. Because action is needed.

Tech stocks are falling, Oracle down 65%, private credit, private equity and commercial real estate are bleeding but equity markets are near their highs and they must not be allowed to crash. Trump says so. Mid-terms are on the horizon.

The US has been drawn into a Vietnam-on-steroids situation in Iran. The US cannot win by bombing deserts, and meanwhile Iran has the petrodollar system in its grip. China is now hoovering up gold at record rates and a new monetary system is upon us. Well not us, not yet. It’s upon those outside of the western fiat monetary system.

Once legitimised by being backed by gold, the US debt explosion from the Vietnam war forced Nixon to take the USD off the Gold Standard. As Treasury Secretary Connally said at the time”: “the USD is our currency but it is your problem”. That certainly rang true, backed up by the US forcing Saudi Arabia to only sell oil in USD, the petrodollar system secured western economies for a further 50 years. Backed not by gold but by oil. Secured by energy.

We can’t help feeling that Mr Connally might well have to rephrase to “the USD is our currency but it is now our problem” soon. And the FED could well accelerate the inevitable this week.

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London | Brisbane. 20 July 2026.

Although US M2 Money supply increased by US$3T over the last 3 years, that is not helping markets deal with a liquidity drought caused by the continuing war with Iran.

As countries and commodity traders have to raise USD to cover further purchases of oil, it leaves risk assets, which currently includes gold, at risk of further downside. The wave of IPOs hasn’t helped, as investment banks desperately seek investor capital for more new issues.

Those risk assets are trying to bottom out but recovery may take more time than expected. Even diehard US tech stocks have been under pressure, with IBM losing 25% of market cap in a single day and 20-30 drawdowns is semiconductors. Apple seems to be where the money is flowing to, up 20%+ in 3 weeks.

Will the FED come to the rescue if liquidity conditions get significantly worse? The market thinks absolutely not and Mr Warsh seems to be agreeing, although he’s talking about reinstating those money aggregates back into FED thinking. Ignored for decades, surely the amount of money in circulation must have something to do with monetary policy?

Warsh is trying to change the FED into a modern, more agile entity but its position as lender of last resort is still its key role. And he will be ready to act if needed. He should probably tell the banks and other market participants on 29th July.

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

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The new FED leader sent markets tumbling by promising to be accountable and transparent while doing a good job! Holy smokes. Markets have accepted no rate cuts and even are pricing in rate hikes.

Reality is that rates have to go a lot lower by fair means or foul.

Along with Trump declaring seized Iranian money not his, this is a clear sign that a financial reset is coming. Maybe to gold too.

London | Brisbane. 15 June 2026.

Seems like markets don’t want the US central bank to do their job properly, find a better measure of inflation than the hugely outdated current models, and be open about everything. Metals, Bitcoin, stocks and bonds all fell sharply.

Luckily Uncle Don was there to fast forward the good news about the Iran agreement, which helped save equity markets ahead of the holiday on Friday.

The bit that really spooked markets was the removal of the possible (in the future) rate cut vibe. Without that glimmer of hope the 2 year yield backed up 20bps but the 10 & 30 years less.

It’s our view that Warsh is doing exactly the right thing, Something that the FED has not been doing for a long time. To get rates down, especially long-term rates then the FED needs to be a lot more credible and courageous. And watching how markets price risk is a really good starting point.

Rates have to go lower despite any amount of inflation and if it takes yield curve control to achieve it then that is what is going to happen. For any chance of escaping from US$40T in debt, those rates have to go down a lot and starting right now.

Surely if you liked Gold at US$5,600 you must love it at US$4,100.

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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

London | Brisbane. 15 June 2026. For immediate release.

SpaceX shares opened at $150 (a 11% pop), climbed as high as $176 intraday (nearly +31%), and closed up 19% at $160.95, instantly valuing the company above $2 trillion and making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. But markets have moved on and the next few weeks will be challenging.

The ECB hiked rates 25bps and the Bank of Japan’s Ueda pretty much told markets a 25bps hike was going to happen on Tuesday, the same day that Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting.

Last week’s US CPI and PPI will be hard to overlook with the YoY headline numbers coming in at 4.2% and 6.5% but central bankers always have their standard esoteric playbook which is finding an unknown metric to suddenly follow. One which shows inflation is conveniently subdued. It’s the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE whose latest reading was 2.3% YoY, and Warsh has already publicly stated that it is his preference.

With the US Treasury adopting a growth-at-all-costs strategy to inflate away the debt, Warsh may well be tempted to join them on the biggest financial gamble in history. For markets this could be the greatest one way bet of all time. Short rates to zero but bond investors beware.

Here’s the podcast

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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

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London | Brisbane. 8 June 2026.

US equity indexes fell hard on Friday as the Iran situation re-ignited and Nonfarm Payroll showed the US economy isn’t slowing as much as some commentators expect.

But that’s just trying to fit a narrative to events. In reality, markets are going to have to find at least US$ 1Trillion to get the upcoming IPOs away successfully as well as at least US$5 Trillion to roll over maturing US Government debt.

But it was Google who spoiled the party by suddenly announcing the offer of US$80 Billion of dilutive equity. This announcement on 1 June started the selloff with crypto going first, and ended the week with the NASDAQ crashing 4% and closing at the lows on Friday afternoon.

Gold and Silver followed suit as the USD strengthened after the US / Iran ceasefire became strained.

Iran launched missiles and drones targeting US-linked sites and maritime traffic. This included attempts toward Kuwait and Bahrain and drones threatening operations in the Strait of Hormuz.

US Central Command reported intercepting Iranian missiles/drones and conducting retaliatory/self-defense strikes on Iranian military targets.

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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

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London | Brisbane. 1 June 2026.

With oil back in the $80/90s depending on which flavour you prefer, markets have started to look at what happens next. Cuba? Interest rate hikes? Interest rate cuts? Gold revaluation? And the next FED meeting on June 1, with Kevin Warsh chairing the FOMC for the first time, will be the first glimpse into the future.

On Friday stock markets hit all time highs yet again, and with a whole host of IPOs lining up in the next month or two, especially SpaceX due June 12, Wall St has a good reason to keep the market running hot. OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Lime, Strava, Canva and maybe Kraken are also in the pipeline. Wall St will have a lot of shares to push out to the market.

The magnificent 7 have driven markets higher by a continuous buy-back policy for the last 5 years. That playbook has been extended by the hyperscalers and the circular AI funding routine. But now it’s time for a flood of share offerings to hit the market. Iran is in the rear view mirror, the price of oil is falling, and along with it inflation will subside. A new FED chair is poised to cut rates as instructed by the President.

One thing is for sure, when all those shares hit the markets Wall St won’t be left holding the bag. All the stops will be pulled out to ensure that those shares have been sold before insiders get to start selling after the lockup period has ended. What could go wrong?

Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

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London | Brisbane 25 May 2026.

A new FED Chair creates a new era in markets as optimism becomes the norm, even if it’s short-lived. The old guard are vilified as a new broom sweeps away perceptions. It’s different this time.

Enter Kevin Warsh into a really tricky situation. Inflation surging, rates backing up, $39T national debt, credit crisis, CRE crisis. But the stock markets are running hard. New wealth is seemingly being created every day for those lucky shareholders. His immediate job is to not let those stock markets fall.

But, as Mr Warsh chairs the FOMC for the first time on 17 June, he’ll be looking at his predecessor, Comrade Powell, who has stayed on as Board Governor and can remain so until January 2028. This is quite unprecedented and will inevitably form a fracturing in a normally coherent committee.

President Trump will be seeking to deflect some of the responsibility for the financial mess of the USA, and he’ll be imbuing Mr Warsh with superhuman powers. He may have superhuman powers but he’ll need superhuman cooperation with Trump and Bessent to even stabilise the fiscal and monetary issues that have pushed the USA to the abyss. And if he fails, history will decide his legacy.

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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

London | Brisbane. 11 May 2026.

Thus far the continual geopolitical uncertainty has kept markets contained, apart from oil of course, but as we now go into another endless war, things are starting to break.

First to blow up is USD/YEN. The Bank of Japan has been intervening over the past 2 weeks above USD/YEN 160, selling USD70 billion and pushing YEN up (only) 2.5%. When they last intervened 2 years ago at the same level, YEN went up 12.5% over 2 months. Above USD/YEN 160 the YEN strength over the last 40 years is reversed. In 1985 central banks agreed at the Plaza Accord to sell USD/YEN in an effort to force the YEN higher to combat cheap and superior Japanese products. The Plaza accord broke Japan and its insane property bubble. 40 Years of recession/depression followed with massive social consequences.

And US stock markets blasted higher this week in what could be a final blow off top. Market breadth is as narrow as can be as chip stocks and AI capex hold the entire global stock market up. It can’t go on forever and when that spending is over, watch out below.

Markets completely ignored a stronger than expected Nonfarm Payroll report and continue to ignore more private credit/equity woes and a worsening commercial real estate market.

Don’t ignore YEN. It’s the most important red flag in capital markets currently and luckily most investors don’t understand the consequences. For more aware investors, this is an opportunity to position themselves for what’s about to occur. When US equities crater it will be too late.

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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

In this episode, Don Collins and Ian Reynolds analyse the current geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape, discussing ongoing wars, market reactions, and central bank policies. They explore how these factors influence global markets, oil prices, and currency liquidity, providing insights for investors navigating uncertain times.

Key Topics

Geopolitical conflicts and their economic impact
Market reactions to geopolitical tensions
Central bank policies and interest rate expectations

Chapters

00:00 Introduction
00:28 Navigating Stress in Capital Markets
06:03 Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Implications
10:42 Market Trends and Economic Indicators

In this episode, Don Collins and Ian Reynolds analyse the current state of global geopolitics and macroeconomics, discussing US debt, potential financial resets, and market implications. They explore the significance of Hank Paulson’s recent warnings, the US debt situation, and the impact on markets and currencies.

Key Topics

US debt and fiscal policy
Global financial reset and debt growth
Market reactions to geopolitical tensions

Action Items

Monitor US debt levels and policy announcements
Follow upcoming US political nominations
Watch for market signals indicating a reset

Sound bites

“They need a plan ready to go.”
“He’s the guy that negotiated the 2009 deal.”
“Markets are waiting for something to happen.”

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Market Challenges
01:24 Geopolitical and Economic Insights
04:19 The Role of Hank Paulson
06:12 Debt Management and Financial Strategies
10:45 Political Changes in Europe
12:06 Market Analysis and Trends
17:58 Looking Ahead: Market Predictions

London | Brisbane. 20 April 2026.

“Former Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, called on US authorities to prepare a back-up plan to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries.“ Bloomberg’s words.

Hank Paulson was Treasury Secretary during the GFC. He knows a few war stories. After a decade of flying under the radar he suddenly pops up on the world’s most trusted reporting platform to prepare the way for extreme measures to try to save the US.

Specifically the insane levels of debt must somehow be allowed to grow by issuing more, whilst a bigger plan is formulated for a global financial reset. And the plan must be ready to go now.

And here comes Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nomination for FOMC Governor and Chair, his Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing is scheduled for Tuesday. Jerome Powell’s term as Chair ends on May 15, 2026. In an emergency, which they clearly think is right around the corner, the buyer of last resort is the FED. They’d better have the right FED in place when it happens.

In Europe, the EU has finally got rid of Orban and can move forward with defending Ukraine against Russia, and getting Sweden and Finland into NATO. It’s a big step forward but there still doesn’t seem to be anyone to lead the EU into becoming a European state, the biggest economy in the world.

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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital

London | Brisbane. 13 April 2026.

2 weeks of peace talks sets the scene for markets to rally and good will to pervade to all mankind. But behind the scenes the US is in its usual state of panic. Melania publicly denying what everybody knows to be true, her relationship with Epstein portends a major revelation.

Economically inflation is picking up globally, even in China, and employment is teetering on the abyss. AI isn’t just taking our job in the future, it’s taking jobs in AI companies now.

Trump’s inescapable issue is not Iran, China, Russia, Oil. It’s the Federal Reserve. Minutes from 8 April before Thursday and Friday’s elevated PCE and CPI numbers reveal that many participants still expect rate cuts eventually if inflation moves down as projected. However, some officials supported language that would keep the door open to rate hikes if inflation stays stubbornly high (“two-sided” risk description) and the balance of risks are upside for inflation and downside for employment. Both are elevated, largely due to Middle East developments.

With US GDP for Q4 coming in at a mere 0.5% QoQ for the 4th quarter 2026, the risk of stagflation is glaringly obvious. And rates won’t be coming down anytime soon.

A defeat for Orban in Hungary’s election this weekend would bring about a better coherence in the EU and could well be the start of the bloc becoming a state. Trump would be horrified.

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Ian Reynolds: Trader & Investor | Former Bank Foreign Exchange Market Maker | Early investor in Bitcoin & Tech Founder. Helping investors understand the radical changes coming in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Suberia Capital: Special situations investing for high net worth individuals.

If you’d like a copy of our weekly press release, please sign up at https://www.suberia.capital/contact. For other enquiries please contact Ian Reynolds on 0422 714 669 or at ian@suberia.capital